Parole chiave
Forma giuridica
Capacità predittiva
Come citare
##plugins.generic.dates.accepted## 2023-09-30
##plugins.generic.dates.published## 2023-12-28
Abstract
Scopo. Questo studio mira a comprendere se un modello generale di previsione dell’insolvenza per le piccole imprese italiane aventi qualsiasi forma giuridica abbia una capacità predittiva diversa rispetto a modelli specifici di previsione dell’insolvenza per quelle aventi forme giuridiche specifiche. Esso si concentra, da un lato, sulle società cooperative e, dall'altro lato, sulle società per azioni e a responsabilità limitata.
Progettazione/metodologia/approccio. Sono stati costruiti e confrontati, per quanto riguarda la capacità predittiva, un modello generale di previsione dell’insolvenza e due modelli specifici di previsione dell’insolvenza (uno per le società cooperative e uno per le società per azioni e a responsabilità limitata).
Risultati. I livelli complessivi di accuratezza del modello generale e di quelli specifici sono gli stessi, ma la percentuale di imprese correttamente previste in crisi sul totale delle imprese effettivamente in crisi (sensibilità) di questi ultimi (in particolare, con riferimento alle società per azioni e alle società a responsabilità limitata) è superiore a quella del primo. Considerati gli elevati costi economici e sociali che possono derivare dagli errori predittivi delle imprese in crisi, i modelli specifici dovrebbero essere preferiti al modello generale.
Implicazioni pratiche e sociali. Questo studio offre a coloro che possono essere interessati a valutare la salute finanziaria di una impresa (stakeholder, quali banche, fornitori, clienti, ecc., nonché gli organi di amministrazione e controllo dell’impresa) modelli di previsione dell’insolvenza aventi un elevato potere predittivo, differenziati a seconda della sua forma giuridica.
Originalità dello studio. Nessuno studio precedente ha verificato se un modello generale di previsione dell’insolvenza per le società aventi qualsiasi forma giuridica abbia una capacità predittiva diversa rispetto a modelli specifici di previsione dell’insolvenza per le società con forme giuridiche specifiche. Allo stesso tempo, nel contesto italiano, nessuno studio precedente ha proposto un modello di previsione dell’insolvenza per le società cooperative.
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